Thursday, May 21, 2026

NVDA printed $81.6B quarterly revenue, guided ~$91B next quarter, delivering third consecutive quarter of accelerating y/y growth (+62% → +73% → +85%). At $5.47T market cap, approximately 14x CY26 sales on $400B framework and ~9x on $600B CY27. (high conf)

Supply commitments to TSMC and memory makers reached $119B at end of FQ1, up $23.8B sequentially. NVDA is pre-buying capacity as a bullish demand signal, but creates fulfillment risk if demand decelerates before commitments are utilized. (high conf)

Data center networking revenue hit $14.8B, up 199% y/y and up 35% sequentially, confirming distributed training architectures require massive networking builds. Jensen stated NVDA is growing share in inference and that Vera Rubin will be more successful than Blackwell. (high conf)

Jensen reportedly said NVDA has sightline to $20B in CPU revenue this year in a $200B TAM, with expectation to become the largest CPU player. This is a direct competitive threat to AMD and INTC server CPU market share, with analyst noting the TAM is $200B not the $107B previously modeled. (medium conf)

R&D spend set to reach ~$7B in FQ2, exceeding AVGO, AMD, and MRVL combined. $80B buyback authorization added as capital return mechanism to provide multiple support if market compression continues. Jensen stated 'we should be growing faster than hyperscaler capex.' (high conf)

Raising CY27/FY28 estimates to $540bn revenue / ~$11.50 EPS, driven by additional bookings beyond the $1T Blackwell and Rubin disclosure and higher pricing to offset memory costs. (high conf)

NVDA raising pricing 15-30% on Rubin racks vs initial prices to pass along memory price increases, while expecting gross margin headwind driven entirely by memory pricing rather than competitive pressure. (high conf)

NVDA underperforming AI compute peers due to lack of strong CY27 visibility compared to competitors who have provided substantial forward guidance, though company-specific concerns include share loss to custom ASICs. (medium conf)

Expected to report F1Q earnings with ~$81B revenue (~$3B beat vs $78B midpoint) and guide to ~$90-91B for next quarter, with Rubin chip production on track despite minor cooling rack delays. (high conf)

Hyperscalers continue aggressive AI infrastructure spending; Edgewater estimates $1T datacenter investment trend continuing with Blackwell demand remaining very strong. (high conf)

Rubin chip/compute board production expected to start this quarter with mass production for racks into Sept/Oct timeframe; H200 China sales feedback from Jensen's China trip in focus. (medium conf)

TSMC is the primary beneficiary of NVDA's $119B supply commitments and is operating as the 'guardian preventing the bubble from bursting.' TSMC capacity decisions are being described as the bubble thermometer for AI infrastructure spending. (high conf)

TSMC will face EUV tool allocation constraints from ASML starting late 2027, competing with Intel and memory makers for EUV allocation. This creates structural capacity limits regardless of demand levels. (high conf)

ASML is identified as the true bottleneck for DRAM capacity expansion from late 2027 onward, shifting from cleanroom capacity constraints to EUV tool availability. Memory makers will compete with TSMC and Intel for EUV allocation. (high conf)

Bloom Energy is signing co-location and offtake deals representing incremental deployable GW outside the grid queue, enabling data center deployments despite PJM curtailments. These deals represent deployments happening now because they are not grid-dependent. (medium conf)

NVDA's R&D spend exceeds MRVL, AMD, and AVGO combined at ~$7B in FQ2, highlighting the R&D scale gap. Ian Buck's networking revenue signal suggests distributed training architectures favor integrated solutions. (medium conf)

Company has already given substantial visibility through end of next year with estimates unchanged; MSFT XPU guidance viewed as conservative and stock's rise since April suggests investors recognize this. (medium conf)

Optical demand substantially ahead of supply with upside constrained by component supply limitations, particularly lasers; company expects FY27 upside from MSFT XPU once product begins shipping. (medium conf)

Involved in AMZN's Trainium 3 as supplier of an alternate chip, with price increase associated with TRN3 over TRN2 allowing for growth in AMZN business; bull case drives CY27 revenue of ~$18bn. (medium conf)

ISI checks show MRVL benefiting from rising 800G/1.6T DSP share gains and growing hyperscaler/NPO demand; Wells Fargo sees MRVL as primary CXL beneficiary through XConn acquisition. (medium conf)

Seen as share gainer in Google TPU supply chain; strong positioning in inference workloads with KV Cache and MoE traffic patterns favoring peer-to-peer bandwidth switching. (medium conf)

SpaceX filed S-1 for IPO on NASDAQ (ticker SPCX), with the document reportedly 'tailor drafted for LLMs.' S-1 confirms $1.25B/month commitment to SpaceX through May 2029 (~$15B/year) from Anthropic. (high conf)

SpaceX is constructing xAI Colossus with 1M GPU target, making it one of the world's largest private AI capital consumers. The 1M GPU target suggests physical space is not the constraint—power delivery is the binding limiter. (high conf)

Google begins direct shipments of TPUs to customers' proprietary datacenters following initial engagements with Anthropic; initial revenue expected late CY26 with significant CY27 ramp, creating true NVDA competitor. (high conf)

Google Cloud revenues up ~70% y/y with backlog more than doubling q/q; volume growing quickly and large enough to support both AVGO and Mediatek on TPU. (high conf)

Google I/O unveiled Gemini 3.5 Flash/Pro models, Gemini Spark assistant, Agent Payments Protocol, and smart glasses; MAUs doubled YoY to 900M; AI mode queries doubling quarterly. (high conf)

Google and Blackstone launching $5B AI cloud venture using TPUs to compete with CoreWeave, with 500MW capacity target by 2027—biggest attempt to monetize Google's chips to external parties. (high conf)

Raised CAPEX guide to $180-190B, in-line with expectations; hyperscalers raising in all currencies to manage rate exposure. (high conf)

AI revenue ARR more than doubled y/y indicating accelerating momentum; FY27 XPU guidance viewed as conservative with company expected to ramp significantly in 2H. (high conf)

MRVL's ability to deliver upside constrained by component supply elsewhere; MSFT XPU shipments could be significantly higher depending on TSM allocation. (medium conf)

Meta engaged with AMD on server GPU; additional unannounced deals not included in Street forecasts can drive upside to AMD's $40.9bn CY27 server GPU forecast. (medium conf)

Meta transferring 7K staff to AI-related roles and planning 10% layoffs as part of restructuring; offering AI rival chatbots limited free WhatsApp access. (medium conf)

Zuckerberg's desire to build world's biggest AI facility deeply entangled in Louisiana's datacenter development; massive capex commitment. (medium conf)

Coherent reports demand continues to meaningfully outpace supply with book-to-bill for datacenter/comms business above prior 4x ratio; orders extending into CY28. (high conf)

Lumentum guides C2Q revenue significantly above consensus despite supply constraints; supply/demand imbalance for EML products widened to >30% with similar imbalance in transceiver business. (high conf)

Teradyne reports AI has become dominant force shaping business with strong double-digit percentage growth y/y expected. (medium conf)

MPWR remains favorite name in analog group due to strong AI exposure across power management applications. (medium conf)

Astera Labs CEO highlighted $10B greenfield TAM for Scorpio X family, expecting it to become largest product line; 10-plus customer engagements with design wins expected by year-end. (high conf)

TheInformation reported positive Trainium traction with AI developers; ALAB +13% on Trainium momentum as cleanest way to express Trainium exposure. (medium conf)

UALink development on track for 2027 deployments with AWS and AMD publicly committed; content per server growing from sub-$100 to over $1,000 with optics opportunity. (medium conf)

Mizuho raised PT to $800 citing AI server/HBM demand driving tight supply and higher pricing into 2027; HBM4 ramps in 2H26 and CPU-attached DRAM content increasing. (high conf)

NAND and DRAM pricing strengthening with AI server demand; supply remains tight amid constrained capacity; potential Samsung strike providing additional upside risk. (medium conf)

Arista guiding 20%+ CAGR for 3 years with 30% of business now AI-related; demand exceeds supply with supply constraints focused specifically on AI components. (high conf)

Ethernet winning in AI from near-zero to 30% of revenue; 1.6T deployments accelerating with XPO optics mandatory at 3.2T; 18-month architecture cycles becoming new norm. (high conf)

Gross margins stable at 62-64% despite supply tightness; company has implemented one pricing change with customers supportive. (medium conf)

Analog Devices acquiring Empower Semiconductor for $1.5B cash to expand AI power portfolio; strategic fit described as clean by room. (high conf)

Expected to beat F2Q consensus with revenue at top of range ($3.54B modeled vs $3.51B cons); upcycle steepening with next five quarters above seasonal. (medium conf)

Mizuho raising PT across analog names citing AI server deployments and higher-power rack architectures driving content growth; 800V architectures tied to next-gen AI racks. (medium conf)

Citi raised PT to $2,025 from $1,300 following strong Kioxia results; NAND ASPs more than doubling q/q; continued supply discipline and growing LTA adoption. (high conf)

AI datacenter storage demand strong but SanDisk argues cost gap vs HDDs (20-25x) weakens economic case for SSD replacement in bulk storage applications. (medium conf)

Dell AI Factory offerings expanding with NVDA/OpenAI/Palantir partnerships; broadened portfolio spanning rack-scale infrastructure, liquid cooling, storage, agentic AI workstations. (medium conf)

Stronger AI server revenue should drive F1Q EPS to ~$3.05 (vs $2.90 estimate); AI-optimized server revenue recognition key upside driver. (medium conf)

Keysight reported record 1H orders of $2.05B (+50% vs $1.7B); Q2 revenue $1.72B with EPS $2.87 vs $2.32 expected; Q3 guide above consensus. (high conf)

GM surprise = best in recent years; tariff refund boosted numbers but fundamentals strong regardless; NVDA = biggest customer. (medium conf)

CEO at JPM conference gave 'masterclass' in AI messaging; saw acceleration across AI native and core business; training emerging as new market with multiple hyperscalers as customers. (high conf)

Stock +3% to new highs; TOTO time-series model showing first scaling laws in time series; Bits AI SRE seeing strong demand for full auto-resolution. (medium conf)

Barclays models FY27 NNARR upside driven by Mythos AI capabilities; sees CRWD as one of biggest AI/security beneficiaries. (medium conf)

Barclays raised PT to $650 and TD Cowen to $625 ahead of June 3 earnings; modeling $250M NNARR with upside to $265-270M. (medium conf)

Stock +3% catching up after recent weakness; UBS continues to favor as AI/data infrastructure beneficiary with 'build vs buy' dynamics favoring platform. (medium conf)

TD Cowen sees PANW benefiting from competitor execution issues following CHKP's weaker results; platformization momentum creating incremental share gain opportunities. (medium conf)

Industry checks point to solid demand backdrop into F3Q26; investors focused on whether platformization and discounted conversions drive ARR back to low-30% range. (medium conf)

Amer Sports Q1 revenue +32% y/y to $1.95B with EBIT margin above consensus; Q2 and FY26 outlook raised; broad-based momentum across all channels, segments, geographies. (high conf)

UBS initiated Buy with $40 PT; strong positioning in 4G nuclear underpinned by ARDP funding and Amazon backing; XE building TRISO-X fuel fabrication facility. (medium conf)

Revenue growth modeled at 37% CAGR 2026-2030E; market pricing in 2030 revenues 33% below forecast. (medium conf)

Uber's 19.5% stake disclosure creates near-term technical support as Prosus exit creates shareholder reshuffling. (low conf)

Coinbase built x402 protocol for machine-to-machine payments; integrated into Amazon Bedrock AgentCore for autonomous agent micropayments. (medium conf)

Still up ~38% since April 1 even after recent carnage; room perspective: healthy pullback, not trend break. (medium conf)

Hit 20-day MA intraday then bounced; called as key support that held in real time. (medium conf)

Goldman Sachs doesn't see cheap open-source China AI models challenging US tech giants; US investment to deliver returns despite competition. (medium conf)

Evercore ISI raised PT to $85; GlobalFoundries positioned to benefit from hyperscaler interest in alternative accelerators. (medium conf)

Evercore ISI raised PT to $427; MACOM Technology benefiting from AI data center infrastructure demand. (medium conf)

Apptopia data showing uptick in Q2 y/y engagement growth—first uptick in 10 quarters. (low conf)